Research published in The Lancet Neurology suggests that Alzheimer’s risk could be estimated far earlier than current clinical practice allows.
According to scientists at Mayo Clinic, the newly developed model draws on decades of work from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, a community-based project in Minnesota that tracks cognitive health over time.
The researchers report that women generally face a higher lifetime risk of developing dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and that the APOE ε4 gene variant remains one of the strongest known genetic contributors across both sexes.
How the model works
The tool combines several measurable factors, age, sex, APOE genotype and amyloid levels captured through PET scans, to calculate the likelihood that a person will develop MCI or dementia within the next decade or across their lifespan.
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Mayo Clinic investigators noted that amyloid detected on PET imaging exerted the largest influence on lifetime risk among all variables evaluated.
The model is rooted in data from 5,858 participants whose health outcomes could be followed even after they stopped taking part actively, thanks to comprehensive medical-record linkage in Olmsted County.
Researchers say this continuity allowed them to observe that dementia developed roughly twice as often in former participants compared with those who remained engaged in the study.
That's an insight they argue offers a more accurate picture of how cognitive decline unfolds in the broader community.
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What it could mean for patients
Although the tool is currently limited to research settings, Mayo Clinic specialists say it could eventually support more tailored clinical decisions, such as when to start certain Alzheimer's therapies or when to consider lifestyle changes aimed at delaying symptoms.
Future versions may incorporate blood-based biomarkers, which could make risk estimation far more accessible.
Researchers involved in the project emphasize that identifying vulnerability earlier could give individuals and families more time to plan, adapt and maintain quality of life before memory issues become noticeable.
Sources: Medicalxpress, The Lancet Neurology, and Mayo Clinic.
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