Researchers behind a 2011 pooled analysis in JAMA looked at 34,485 community-dwelling adults age 65 and older across nine long-running cohort studies. Participants were followed for 6 to 21 years.
Gait speed alone predicted remaining life expectancy about as accurately as multivariable models that combined age, sex, chronic conditions, use of mobility aids and self-reported function.
Each 0.1 meters per second gain in usual walking speed was linked to roughly a 12 percent lower risk of dying during follow-up, the study reported.
The three speeds that matter
A pace of about 0.8 meters per second, roughly 1.8 mph, corresponded to the median life expectancy for a person's age and sex. Speeds of 1.0 m/s (2.2 mph) or faster were associated with survival longer than expected.
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Speeds of 1.2 m/s and above, about 2.7 mph, predicted what the researchers called exceptional longevity, according to the press release accompanying the paper.
Walking slower than about 0.6 m/s, roughly 1.3 mph, flagged older adults at higher risk who warranted further evaluation.
Why a simple stroll reveals so much
Walking is not just a leg movement. It draws on the heart, lungs, muscles, joints, nerves, and balance systems at the same time. When any of those systems slow down, gait tends to slow with them.
Stephanie Studenski of the University of Pittsburgh, who led the JAMA analysis, said in remarks accompanying the paper that gait speed "has potential to be implemented in practice, using a stop watch and a 4-meter course."
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The signal was strongest after age 75. At that age, predicted 10-year survival ranged from 19 to 87 percent in men and 35 to 91 percent in women, depending only on age, sex, and walking speed.
A newer look from UK Biobank
Later evidence points in the same direction. An analysis of 298,829 UK Biobank participants, median age 57, followed for about seven years examined the same question in a much larger group.
Self-reported walking pace was the only lifestyle measure that improved prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular death after standard risk factors were accounted for. The work appeared in the European Journal of Preventive Cardiology in 2020.
How to test yourself at home
Mark a 4-meter (about 13-foot) stretch of hallway. From a standing start, walk it at the pace you would normally use in the street.
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Time yourself with a phone, then divide 4 by the number of seconds it took. That is your gait speed in meters per second.
A single test is a snapshot, not a diagnosis. Gait speed is an indicator, not a treatment target, and the JAMA authors specifically warned against treating faster walking as a proven intervention to extend life.
If your pace is slow, or if you have noticed a change from your usual, a conversation with your doctor is the right next step.
Regular aerobic activity, strength training for the legs, and balance work can improve walking speed in older adults over time.
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